The encroachment of urbanization on agricultural land: a spatial and temporal analysis of farmland use change in Lokoja (1992 to 2032)

Abstract

Rapid urban expansion in Nigerian cities has placed sustained pressure on peri-urban agricultural land, with significant implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and environmental stability. This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of farmland use change in Lokoja, the capital of Kogi State, over the period from 1992 to 2022, and projects the trajectory of change to 2032. A mixed-methods design was adopted, integrating remote sensing and geographic information system techniques with a structured household survey administered to a sample of three hundred and sixty respondents drawn from eight peri-urban nodes, namely Zango, Sarkin-noma, Adankolo, Lokongoma, Gadumo, Natako, Ganaja, and Felele. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified to derive land use and land cover maps, and a post-classification comparison was used to quantify transitions between classes. The results reveal that the built-up area expanded from approximately fifteen per cent of the land surface in 1992 to thirty-five per cent in 2022, while farmland contracted from thirty-seven per cent to twenty-seven per cent over the same period. Post-classification analysis indicates that around seventy-four square kilometres of land originally under cultivation in 1992 had been converted to built-up use by 2022, representing the single largest land transition observed. Compound annual growth rate projections suggest that, if prevailing trends persist, built-up land could approach forty-six per cent of the land surface by 2032 while farmland declines further toward twenty-four per cent. The survey identifies population growth, housing demand, and commercial development as the principal drivers of conversion. The study concludes that the unregulated encroachment of urbanization on farmland constitutes a substantial threat to local food systems and recommends the integration of agricultural land protection into the urban planning framework of Lokoja.