Ungoverned spaces and the political economy of small arms proliferation in Northern Nigeria

Abstract

This paper examines the intricate relationship between ungoverned spaces and the political economy of small arms proliferation in Northern Nigeria. Drawing on qualitative analysis of secondary sources, the study argues that ungoverned spaces, understood as territories marked by limited state presence and competing structures of authority, operate as critical enablers of armed violence by furnishing sanctuary for trafficking networks, operational bases for insurgents and bandits, and arenas in which the state monopoly on legitimate force is actively contested. A political economy framework is adopted to interrogate both the supply side, encompassing external sources from Libya and the wider Sahel, internal fabrication by artisanal blacksmiths, and leakages from security force arsenals, and the demand side, comprising resource conflicts, insurgency, criminal banditry, and communal self defence. Historical analysis traces arms circulation from pre-colonial gun societies through colonial regulation to post-independence militarisation, demonstrating that contemporary patterns are embedded in much longer processes of state formation and frontier neglect. The findings indicate that a substantial share of the illicit weapons in circulation entered the country through Sahelian corridors following the 2011 collapse of the Libyan state, with traffickers exploiting more than four thousand kilometres of porous borders of which only a small fraction of official crossings are effectively manned. The humanitarian consequences include mass displacement, livelihood destruction, and acute food insecurity affecting millions, while the political consequences encompass the erosion of state authority and the emergence of alternative governance structures that tax, adjudicate, and police. The study concludes that durable responses require comprehensive measures addressing both supply and demand, including regional cooperation, border management reform, investment in rural livelihoods, and the rebuilding of accountable governance in long neglected peripheries.