Rural insecurity, macroeconomic pressure, and human capital development in Nigeria: An empirical analysis of Kiri community, Kabba-Bunu Local Government Area, Kogi State

Abstract

Rural insecurity in Nigeria is increasingly shaped by both structural governance weakness and macroeconomic instability. This study examines the combined effect of socio-economic factors and inflationary pressure on insecurity and human capital development in Kiri community, Kabba-Bunu Local Government Area of Kogi State. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted, with data collected from 240 respondents through a structured questionnaire, and the reliability of the instrument was confirmed with a Cronbach alpha of 0.84. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression, supported by diagnostic tests for multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity. The findings show that farm attacks, kidnapping, and armed robbery are the dominant forms of insecurity. The regression results reveal that weak security presence, unemployment, poor infrastructure, and inflationary pressure each significantly predict insecurity, with weak security presence emerging as the strongest determinant and inflationary pressure as a critical macroeconomic driver. Diagnostic tests confirm the stability of the model, with all variance inflation factors below 2.5 and a Breusch-Pagan probability above the conventional threshold. Inflation significantly worsens household vulnerability by eroding purchasing power and depressing agricultural productivity. The study concludes that insecurity in Kiri is driven jointly by structural governance failure and macroeconomic instability, and that effective policy must therefore integrate security reform with inflation control and rural economic stabilisation.