Hydrogeological complexity and water governance in Nigeria: advancing integrated water resources management through provisions of achievable solutions

Abstract

Sustainable water resources management in Nigeria remains a significant challenge despite the country's abundant surface and groundwater reserves. This study assesses the status, constraints, and prospects of Integrated Water Resources Management as a vehicle for addressing the widening imbalance between water demand and supply under mounting socio-economic and environmental pressure. The analysis reveals strong spatial variability in water availability, persistent climatic uncertainty, and the widespread occurrence of low-yielding crystalline basement aquifers. Water scarcity in the northern regions, particularly within the Sokoto-Rima, Chad, and Hadejia-Jamare basins, is intensified by high evapotranspiration, rapid population growth, weak infrastructure, and ineffective governance. Several systemic limitations are identified, among them fragmented institutional structures, an entrenched supply-oriented management posture, inadequate data, and limited technical capacity. Hydrogeological and geophysical evidence underscores the importance of aquifer characterisation and recharge assessment for sustainable groundwater development, while water budget analysis clarifies the regional water balance. Advances in hydrological modelling, embracing both numerical and data-driven approaches, strengthen predictive capacity and support informed decision-making, and the integration of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and machine learning improves groundwater potential mapping in data-scarce settings. The study concludes that durable water security in Nigeria requires a decisive shift toward an integrated and adaptive management framework underpinned by institutional reform, technological innovation, and genuine stakeholder engagement.