IMPACT OF ROLLING STOCK EXPANSION ON RAIL SERVICE CAPACITY: A STUDY OF THE ABUJA-KADUNA TRAIN SERVICE

Abstract

This study examines the impact of rolling stock expansion on the Abuja-Kaduna rail service in Nigeria from 2016 to 2022, focusing on service capacity, operational efficiency, and passenger satisfaction. The Nigeria government increased NRC’s fleet from 12 to 36 coaches to address rising demand, yet the relationship between this investment and measurable performance improvements remains underexplored. Using mixed methods—including operational data analysis, maintenance logs, and passenger surveys—the research reveals a 184% capacity increase, outpacing passenger growth (142%) and addressing capacity underutilization (58% post-expansion). While punctuality improved by 27%, maintenance challenges, particularly Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) failures (43% of faults), and higher labour costs affected the efficiency gains. Passenger satisfaction rose significantly in seating availability (+1.3 points) and punctuality (+0.9 points), though long ticketing queues and inadequate basic amenities are major drawback. Financial sustainability concerns emerged, with a 30% drop in revenue per coach despite lower unit costs. The conclusions highlight that rolling stock expansion alone is insufficient without complementary demand management, workforce training, and ancillary revenue strategies. The study provides policy recommendations, including dynamic pricing, predictive maintenance, and integrated ticketing, to optimize Nigeria’s rail investments as a model for other developing economies revitalizing their rail transport.