Age structured malaria model with intervention mixes in kogi state

Abstract

This study proposes an age structured mathematical model to assess the impact of key malaria interventions, namely Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC), Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs), and case management, on transmission dynamics in Kogi State, Nigeria. The population is stratified into three groups: children under five, pregnant women, and adults. The basic reproduction number (R0 ) is computed for each subgroup and the entire population to quantify age specific transmission and its contribution to overall disease persistence. Stability analysis (local and global) of the equilibria determines long term disease behaviour under different intervention scenarios, while sensitivity analysis of R0 identifies key drivers. Complementing this, time series analysis of historical incidence data identifies seasonal trends and forecasts future case trajectories. Numerical simulations integrating these approaches evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention combinations, providing evidence based guidance for optimizing malaria control strategies in Kogi State.