Analysis of climatic variabilities and road traffic crashes in lokoja, kogi state, nigeria

Abstract

Road traffic crashes constitute an escalating public health burden in Nigeria, especially in rapidly urbanising cities that serve as major transportation corridors. This study examined the relationship between selected climatic variables and the incidence of road traffic crashes, injuries, and fatalities in Lokoja, the capital of Kogi State, over a nine year period (2014 to 2024). Climatic data comprising temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed were sourced from the Centre for Atmospheric Research of the National Space Research and Development Agency, while crash records were obtained from the Federal Road Safety Corps, Kogi State Sector Command. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, simple linear regression, and the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient. The results revealed that December recorded the highest number of traffic crashes, while April had the most fatalities and January the most injuries across the study period. The rainy season accounted for a slightly higher proportion of crashes (53.59%), deaths (52.69%), and injuries (53.21%) compared with the dry season. Regression analysis demonstrated that traffic crashes were a significant predictor of both injuries (R2 = 0.642) and fatalities (R2 = 0.210). Pearson correlation analysis indicated that no climatic variable was significantly correlated with the number of traffic crashes. However, rainfall and relative humidity exhibited weak but statistically significant negative correlations with the number of persons injured, while average temperature showed a weak positive correlation with the number of persons killed. These findings suggest that climatic variables are not the primary drivers of traffic crashes in Lokoja but serve as contributing factors, particularly through their indirect effects on road surface conditions, visibility, and driver behaviour. The study recommends the integration of weather responsive traffic management strategies, improved drainage infrastructure, and targeted driver education campaigns to reduce the burden of road traffic casualties in the study area.