Climate-Driven Risk and Political Fragility in South-East Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping ecological systems and public health worldwide, with South-East Nigeria particularly vulnerable due to rapid deforestation, flooding, and fragile governance. These pressures increase disease risks, strain weak health infrastructures, and erode public trust. A sequential mixed-methods design was applied across Abia, Ebonyi, and Enugu States. Data included climate records, land-use indices, disease surveillance, and governance indicators. Household surveys (n = 360), focus groups (n = 9), and key informant interviews (n = 12) were analyzed using SPSS and NVIVO to explore links between environmental change, illness, and political fragility. Over half of households (58.1%) reported a climate-sensitive illness in the past year, mainly malaria (62.2%). Living near deforestation/mining doubled illness odds (OR = 2.18), while flooding increased odds by 89%. Illness experience reduced trust in government (B = −0.42), though perceived effective response increased it (+0.55). Findings confirm that ecological disruption heightens disease risk and weakens institutional legitimacy. Community coping exists but is strained, and awareness of environment–disease links is low. Integrated One-Health surveillance, environmental safeguards, and transparent outbreak responses are critical to protect health and sustain governance resilience in South-East Nigeria.

Keywords: Climate Change, Political Fragility, Zoonotic Diseases, One Health, South-East Nigeria