Prediction of Accident Occurrence Using Road Geometric Alignment Parameters on the Outer Northern Expressway in the Federal Capital City, Abuja

This research investigated the role of road geometric parameters in predicting accidents on Outer Northern Expressway, the first completed expressway linking all four phases of the Federal Capital City. In this study, the corridor was divided into eight (8) segments using SRTM-DEM to extract road geometric data. Road features such as horizontal and vertical curves were used to create the accident prediction model. In addition to the geometric data, traffic data was collected from the Federal Capital Territory Administration and used as an independent variable in the crash prediction model. Independent variables were transformed using logarithms to account for their wide range of scales, and a normality test was performed before running the multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that vertical curves will contribute 60.2% accident on the facility while traffic turbulence due to peak hour flows will contribute 39.4% of accident occurrence on the facility. The study further revealed that horizontal curves on the facility contribute 0.4% to accident occurrence. Therefore, vertical alignment curve improvement on the facility and effective traffic management during peak hours would reduce accident rate to the barest minimum.



Journal Title: Nigerian Journal of Logistics and Transport

Category: Logistics and Transportation

ISSN: 2714-2248

Year of Establishment: 2018

Section: Transportation Technology

Volume: 15

Issue: 2

Total Download: 0

Muhammad Aminu Jika, Prof. Hashim Muhammad Alhassan, & Mujahid Tijjani Tashi. 2024 Prediction of Accident Occurrence Using Road Geometric Alignment Parameters on the Outer Northern Expressway in the Federal Capital City, Abuja. Nigerian Journal of Logistics and Transport. 15 (2). 166-181. https://doi.org/10.61955/HWTMOE

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